CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. BOSTON CELTICS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 7, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Cleveland Cavaliers (52-37 SU, 41-46-2 ATS) taking on the Boston Celtics (68-19 SU, 45-37-5 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this second-round matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, May 7, 2024
  
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
  
• Where: TD Garden
  
• Location: Boston, MA
  
• TV: TNT

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics Odds (Via DraftKings)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

The Cleveland Cavaliers finished with the fourth-best regular-season record in the Eastern Conference. In the opening round of the playoffs, they faced an Orlando Magic team that had not been to the playoffs in four years. 

Despite this fact, the Magic pushed them to a seventh game before bowing out 106-94 in the series finale. In that contest, Donovan Mitchell paced the team’s offense with 39 points on 11-for-27 shooting from the field and 15-for-17 from the charity stripe. He also tallied nine rebounds and five assists.

Caris LeVert provided some scoring punch off the bench with 15 points, five boards, and four assists. Max Strus added 13 points on 5-for-9 shooting, while Darius Garland contributed 12 points and four assists. 

While the Cavaliers had not won a playoff series since 2018, Mitchell was not overly excited about their Game 7 win. 

“I don’t mean this disrespectful, but it doesn’t really mean much,” Mitchell said after the game. “We didn’t come in just to win the first round. We accomplished one goal, now we have to do it again. That’s the mindset.”

Meanwhile, the top-seeded Boston Celtics faced the Miami Heat in their first-round playoff series. The Heat were missing several players, including Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, and the Celtics took full advantage of the injury-riddled Heat, knocking them off in five games. It is worth noting that Miami defeated the Celtics 4-3 in last year’s Eastern Conference finals, so this victory was a measure of redemption for Boston. 

In the series finale, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown scored 25 points apiece. 

Sam Hauser finished with 17 points and five rebounds off the bench. Jayson Tatum added 16 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists for a Celtics squad that shot 54.5 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc. 

Both teams will be short-handed coming into this series. Boston’s Kristaps Porzingis will likely miss the entire second round with a right calf injury he sustained against the Heat. Cleveland’s big man, Jarrett Allen, has missed the team’s last three games with a rib injury. Allen averaged 16.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in 77 regular season games. And in four games against the Magic, he averaged 17.0 points and 13.8 rebounds per contest. 

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 1 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

Following their 4-1 series win over the Heat in the first round, the Celtics come into this matchup as an 11.5-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five outings.
• Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Boston.
• The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against Atlantic Division opponents.
• In its last 11 May games, Cleveland is 3-8 against the spread. 
• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.
• Boston is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday night games.
• The Celtics are 5-1-1 in the last seven games they were installed as the favorite. 
• Boston has an ATS record of 15-8 this season when they have been favored to win by 11.5 points or more.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-11.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 210 points. The line has moved to 208 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER in the Cavaliers’ last 14 games against Eastern Conference opponents.

• The OVER total has hit 13 times in the Celtics’ last 19 outings.

• The total has gone OVER five times in Boston’s last seven matchups against Cleveland.

• In the Celtic’s last 15 contests against Eastern Conference teams, the OVER total prevailed 11 times. 

• Cleveland and Boston average a combined 233.2 points per contest, which is 25.2 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (208).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 229.8 points per contest, which is 21.8 points higher than the projected total for this matchup. 

Prediction: OVER 208 points

Player Prop Bets

On the heels of scoring 89 points in his last two playoff games, Donovan Mitchell is the key player to watch for the Cavaliers. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Mitchell is averaging 26.8 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In two games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 30.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 28.7 points per outing.
• Mitchell has played against Eastern Conference teams 41 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 28.0 points per outing.
• In 12 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Cavaliers guard is averaging 26.2 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Mitchell has averaged 27.3 points and 5.1 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Prediction: Donovan Mitchell OVER 27.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Jayson Tatum is the key player to watch for the top-seeded Celtics. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. 

Do Tatum’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Tatum is averaging 26.5 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In three games against the Cavaliers this season, he has averaged 26.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 21.8 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Eastern Conference teams 51 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.5 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Central Division opponents, the Celtics’ forward is averaging 26.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 21.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup only once during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum UNDER 27.5 points

James Tillman’s Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-11.5) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 208 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Donovan Mitchell OVER 27.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jayson Tatum UNDER 27.5 points