LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 16, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Los Angeles Lakers (48-35 SU, 39-44 ATS) taking on the New Orleans Pelicans (49-33 SU, 43-37-2 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this play-in tournament matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, April 16, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Smoothie King Center
  
• Location: New Orleans, LA
  
• TV: TNT and truTV

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds (Via DraftKings)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Lakers Capture the No. 7 Spot For The Second Straight Season?

Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.0 PPG – 6TH                       
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 15TH                       
• Scoring Defense: 117.4 PPG – 23RD                     
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.3 points per 100 possessions – 16TH           

The Lakers finished in the No. 8 spot in the conference playoff race, a full two games behind the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the Lakers have won seven of their last 10 contests and they enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak.

Ironically, this includes a 124-108 win over the Pelicans in the season finale on Sunday. All five of the Lakers’ starters scored in double figures. Anthony Davis paced the Lakers’ scoring attack with a team-high 30 points to go along with 11 rebounds and three assists.

LeBron James turned in a solid performance with 28 points, 17 assists, and 11 rebounds. James also tallied five steals as well. Austin Reaves contributed 20 points on 8-for-12 shooting from the field and 3-for-7 from beyond the arc. 

The Lakers shot an efficient 55.2 percent from the floor and led this contest by as many as 32 points. But James knows how difficult it is to beat an opponent in back-to-back games. 

“Tuesday’s game is going to be extremely hard, extremely difficult, extremely physical,” James said, via CBS Sports. “I’ve always known that when you play a playoff series — and I look at this like a two-game playoff series — if you win that first game, a team has multiple days to kind of sit on that feeling, or sit with that taste in their mouth of defeat.

“So, they’re going to be extremely ready for us and we have to come in with the same sense of urgency that we had the previous game.”

The Lakers have beaten the Pelicans in three of their four meetings this season. Will the trend continue in this play-in matchup?

Can The Pelicans Knock Off A Lakers Team That Has Beaten Them Three Times This Season?

New Orleans Pelicans Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.1 PPG – 13TH              
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 11TH              
• Scoring Defense: 110.7 PPG – 8TH                         
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.9 points per 100 possessions – 7TH             

On the other side of this matchup, the New Orleans Pelicans concluded the season with the seventh-best record in the Western Conference while going 5-5 across their last 10 decisions. Much to the team’s dismay, a recent four-game winning streak ended with the 124-108 loss to the Lakers on Sunday. 

In that contest, the Pelicans placed four of their five starters in double figures. CJ McCollum led the way with 25 points, seven assists and four rebounds. 

Herbert Jones finished with 18 points and five boards, while Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson contributed 13 and 12 points, respectively. 

One of the areas where the game got away from the Pelicans was in the paint as the Lakers outscored the Pelicans by a 68-42 margin in this category. 

 “We have to come back with the right mentality,” head coach Willie Green said after the game. “They were the aggressors. We have to be the aggressive team. We have to be the more physical team. We have to keep them out of our paint and make them take contested shots and rebound the ball.

“They played with a ton of force. They came out right away. At least for the first half, they punched us right in the mouth and kept going.”

As it was previously mentioned, the Pelicans have not had a ton of success against Los Angeles this season. Can they turn that trend around or will they have to seize a postseason berth by way of a victory against the winner of the other play-in tournament matchup between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors?

Now that we have set the table for this showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Los Angeles Lakers opened as a 1.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to one point for the road team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last six contests.
• Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six matchups against New Orleans.
• In their last seven games as the favorite, the Lakers are 5-2 ATS.
• The Pelicans are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
• New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.
• In their last 18 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, the Pelicans are an impressive 12-6 against the spread.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers (-1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 228.5 points. The line has recently moved to 222.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Lakers’ last seven outings.
• The OVER total has cashed four times in Los Angeles’s last five road matchups against New Orleans.
• In each of the Lakers’ last six games, the OVER total prevailed each time.
• The total has gone OVER four times Pelicans’ last five games against Los Angeles.
• In New Orleans’s last nine April games, the OVER total is 6-3. 
• The two teams average a combined 233.1 points per contest, which is 10.6 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (222.5).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 228.1 points per contest, which is 5.6 points higher than the projected total for this matchup. 

Prediction: OVER 222.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his 30-point, 11-rebound effort against New Orleans in the season finale, Anthony Davis is the key player to watch for Los Angeles. He currently has -112 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -108 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 14 career games against the Pelicans, Davis has averaged 26.1 points per contest.
• During the season, he averaged 24.7 points per game across 76 outings.
• In 35 road contests, AD is averaging 25.5 points per game.
• Davis has played against Western Conference teams 48 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.8 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, he is averaging 25.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Davis has averaged 26.6 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points

On the other side of the matchup, CJ McCollum paced the team’s scoring in the season finale against Los Angeles, thus making him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 23.5 points (via PointsBet). 

Do McCollum’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In 38 career games against the Lakers, McCollum has averaged 18.4 points per contest.
• During the season, he averaged 20 points per game across 66 outings.
• In 33 home contests, the Pelicans’ veteran guard is averaging 19.9 points per game.
• McCollum has played against Western Conference teams 39 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 21 points per outing.
• In 16 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 20.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, McCollum has averaged 27.5 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup nine times during that stretch.

Prediction: CJ McCollum UNDER 23.5 points

James Tillman’s Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans Picks

• The Spread: Los Angeles Lakers (-1) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 222.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: CJ McCollum UNDER 23.5 points