Greetings basketball fans. The WNBA is heading towards the home stretch of the 2023 season. While some teams have locked in their playoff positions, a few other teams are trying to move up in the standings.
The lone game on the schedule for today features the defending champion Las Vegas Aces (30-5) taking on the New York Liberty (27-7). These two teams have the top two records in the association, so it should be a great game.
With that being said, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
When: Monday, August 28, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET
Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty – Season Trends & Offensive/Defensive Stats
The Aces have been the top team throughout the entire season. And despite the few hiccups along the way, they are still the odds-on favorite to win it all once again. Las Vegas has won seven of its last 10 games. However, in their recent outing against the Washington Mystics, they were defeated to the tune of 78-62. Not only that but the Aces were also held to their second-lowest point total of the season and were outscored by a 26-14 margin in the fourth quarter. The Aces are now hoping to get back into the win column against the team that held them to their lowest point total (61) earlier this season.
The Aces boast the top offense in the league as they are averaging 92.8 points per game and 114.3 points per 100 possessions. Las Vegas also has the second-best scoring defense (allowing 80.2 PPG) and the best defensive rating as well (allowing 98.9 points per 100 possessions). Although the Aces will more than likely finish with the best record in the league, they undoubtedly want to even the score against the ball club that held them to 61 points a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, The Liberty have been playing some good basketball as well. In fact, they have posted nine wins across their last 10 outings, and they are riding the wave of a three-game winning streak coming into the matchup against the defending champs. In the team’s last outing on Saturday, they trounced the Minnesota Lynx 111-76. MVP frontrunner, Breanna Stewart led all scorers with 38 points on 12-for-17 shooting from the field, and he converted six of her eight attempts from beyond the arc. Stewart also tallied 12 rebounds, two assists and two blocks. It’s performances like this one that have contributed to Stewart being ahead of the pack in the MVP race.
New York comes into this matchup as the second-best offense in the league behind the Aces. And from a defensive standpoint, the Liberty are ranked fourth in points allowed (80.5) and they have the third-best defensive rating (100.7 points per 100 possessions). Although New York isn’t quite as dominant as the Aces in these categories, this team can hold its own.
The Aces are favored to win this game by one point. Here are some trends that suggest why the defending champs could cover the (-1) spread.
- Las Vegas is 15-7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 23 games against New York.
- The Aces are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 road games in New York.
- Las Vegas is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with a winning record. New York is 27-7 on the season.
- Lastly, the Aces are 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these ball clubs.
Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-1)
The projected over/under total is 173 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the UNDER could be the better option.
- These two teams have played each other four times this season. The combined scoring totals have eclipsed the 173 points projected for this contest only once.
- The UNDER total is 5-2 for the Aces in their last seven games overall.
- The UNDER total has cashed in eight times in New York’s last 11 games.
- The UNDER total is 5-2-1 in New York’s last 11 games when they are playing on one day of rest.
- The UNDER total is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Prediction: UNDER 173 points
Player Prop Bet
My key player to watch in this matchup is Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 19.5 points.
Wilson is averaging career highs in points (21.9), rebounds (9.5), blocks (2.1), and shooting efficiency (53.8 percent). Additionally, Wilson is averaging 23.8 points per contest in her last 10 outings.
Based on these numbers, I would strongly suggest going with the OVER for the points total.