PHOENIX SUNS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 23, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (49-34 SU, 35-46-2 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (57-26 SU, 41-41-1 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this play-in tournament matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, April 23, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Target Center
  
• Location: Minneapolis, MN
  
• TV: TNT 

Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds (Via DraftKings)

Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Suns Bounce Back In Game 2?

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.2 PPG – 10TH                       
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.6 points per 100 possessions – 9TH                       
• Scoring Defense: 113.2 PPG – 13TH                      
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.6 points per 100 possessions – 13TH           

The Suns entered the playoffs with seven wins across their last 10 outings. Not only that, but they had also defeated the Timberwolves in all three regular-season matchups between these two teams, including a 125-106 victory in the season finale.

However, Phoenix did not bring its “A” game in the series opener, as they were defeated 120-95. Three of the Suns’ five starters scored in double figures. 

Kevin Durant led the way with 31 points and seven rebounds on 11-for-17 shooting from the field. 

Devin Booker added 18 points and five assists but shot just 5-for-16 from the field. Bradley Beal contributed 15 points and six assists. 

“We all just need to adjust to the playoffs, the physicality,” Booker said, via CBS Sports. “They’re being ultra-physical with me, and then I had three early fouls and (went) to the bench. Then it was just trying to find a rhythm from there.”

Head coach, Frank Vogel, advised he is excited about moving past his team’s disappointing outing in Game 1. It will be interesting to see how or if his team responds in Game 2. 

Can The Timberwolves Duplicate Their Solid Effort From Game 1?

Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.0 PPG – 18TH              
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.6 points per 100 possessions – 16TH              
• Scoring Defense: 106.5 PPG – 1ST                          
• Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 points per 100 possessions – 1ST              

On the other side of this matchup, the Timberwolves finished at the No. 3 spot in the conference playoff race and had won six of their last 10 games of the regular season. However, this team struggled against the Suns in the three regular-season meetings between these two ball clubs.

In fact, the Suns’ margin of victory in those three games was 15.7 points per contest. Minnesota looked like a much different team in Game 1, though. Anthony Edwards led the scoring barrage with 33 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. He also tallied two steals.

Karl-Anthony Towns added 19 points, seven boards, and five dimes. Rudy Gobert contributed 14 points on just six shot attempts (4-for-6) and pulled down 16 rebounds. 

Despite his brilliant performance in Game 1, Edwards understands the task at hand for his team. 

“It’s going to be hard to beat these guys,” Edwards after the game, who shot 14 for 24. “It’s just one game. They will be ready to go the next time we play them.”

Minnesota held Phoenix to 44 percent shooting from the floor and 32.1 percent from beyond the arc (9-for-28). If they have that kind of success in tonight’s contest, they should be heading back to Phoenix with a commanding 2-0 lead. 

Now that we have set the table for this Game 2 showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Minnesota Timberwolves opened as a four-point favorite. At this time, the line has moved to three points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Suns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
• In its last 10 matchups against Minnesota, Phoenix is 9-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five outings.
• Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against Pacific Division opponents.
• In their last seven April games, the Timberwolves are 2-5 against the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 213.5 points. The line has recently moved to 211.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Suns’ last five road contests.

• The OVER total has cashed in all five times in Phoenix’s last five matchups against Minnesota.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Timberwolves’ last six outings.

• The OVER total is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games against Phoenix.

• In the Timberwolves’ last five games against Western Conference teams, the OVER total is 4-1. 

• Phoenix and Minnesota average a combined 229.2 points per contest, which is 17.7 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (211.5).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 219.7 points per contest, which is 8.2 points higher than the projected total for this matchup. 

Prediction: OVER 211.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his 31-point performance in the series opener, Kevin Durant is the key player to watch for Phoenix. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 46 career games against the Timberwolves, Durant has averaged 26.9 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 31 points per game.
• In his lone home contest in the playoffs, KD is averaging 31 points per game.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 47 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.8 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, he is averaging 29.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 24.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 points

Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards was the star of the show for Minnesota in Game 1, making him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points. 

Do Edwards’ numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In 13 career games against the Suns, Edwards has averaged 20.9 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 33 points per contest.
• In the team’s one home contest in the playoffs, the Timberwolves shooting guard is averaging 33 points per game.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 50 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.4 points per outing.
• In 18 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he averages 25.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 25.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 points

James Tillman’s Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Picks

• The Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 211.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 points