Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News.
One of the games on Tuesday’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (12-5 SU, 6-11 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS).
These two teams squared off back in late October. The Bucks came away with a 122-114 win. That said, the Heat will be looking to even the score this time around.
So, without further delay, let’s dive into this matchup to see which team has the edge and why.
- When: Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
- Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
- TV: TNT and BSWI
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds (via DraftKings)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Bucks posted a 5-4 record through their first nine games. This was not the start the team was hoping for after acquiring Damian Lillard in the offseason. Since that slow start, though, Milwaukee has won seven times in its previous eight contests. This includes a 108-102 victory against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday night.
Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team with 33 points to go along with 16 boards and six assists. Damian Lillard chipped in with 31 points, five rebounds, and four assists against his former team. The Bucks won this game despite trailing by as many as 26 points. The team knows that is not the recipe for success against a Heat team that knocked them out of last season’s playoffs.
On the other side of this Eastern Conference matchup, Miami dropped four of its first five games of the season. They went on to win seven straight games before dropping three of their last five contests. This includes a 112-97 loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday night. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, the Heat shot 43.7 percent from the field and 32.4 percent from beyond the arc. Caleb Martin came off the bench to lead Miami with 22 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Jaime Jaquez Jr. chipped in with 18 points, five rebounds and four assists.
The Bucks are a three-point favorite in this matchup (via DraftKings). Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the road team to cover the spread is a safe bet.
- The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- Milwaukee is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games that were played on a Tuesday.
- The Miami Heat are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-3)
The projected over/under total for this matchup is 226 points. Below are a few trends that suggest why gong with the OVER total is the best choice.
- The OVER total is 10-3 for Milwaukee in its last 13 matchups against Southeast Division opponents.
- In the Bucks’ last 20 games, the OVER total has prevailed 13 times.
- The OVER total is a perfect 8-0 for Miami in its last eight matchups against the Bucks.
- The OVER total has cashed in eight times for the Heat in their last 10 matchups against teams in the Central Division.
Prediction: OVER 226 points
Player Prop Bets
At the time of this writing, there was only player prop information available for three players between these two teams.
My first key player to watch for is Damian Lillard. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 26.5 points.
In 21 career games against the Heat, Lillar is averaging 23.9 points per contest. On the season, Lillard is averaging 25.6 points per contest. Both trends are less than his projected point total for this matchup.
Conversely, over his last nine outings, Lillard has scored 27-plus points seven times. With that in mind, taking the OVER for Lillard could be the way to go.
My second key player to watch is Brook Lopez. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 12.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 12.5 points. Lopez has suited up against the Heat 41 times in his career. And he is averaging 15.3 points per contest during that stretch.
Additionally, Lopez is averaging 13.3 points per outing this season, which is slightly higher than his projected point total for this matchup. Lastly, Lopez has scored 15-plus points four times in his last six outings. Given these trends, going with the OVER for Lopez should be a safe bet.
Spread: Bucks (-3)
Over/Under: Over 226 points
Player Prop Bet #1: Damian Lillard OVER 26.5 points
Player Prop Bet #2: Brook Lopez OVER 12.5 points