MIAMI HEAT VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS – ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR DECEMBER 28, 2023

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on the tap from Thursday night’s slate features the Miami Heat (18-12 SU, 14-16 ATS) taking on the Golden State Warriors (15-15 SU, 15-15 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Wednesday, December 28, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
  
• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
  
• TV: NBA TV

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors (Via DraftKings)

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.4 PPG – 19TH  
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.4 PPOHP – 15TH  
• Scoring Defense: 111.9 PPG – 8TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.8 PPOHP – 13TH   

*PPOHP is (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

The Miami Heat come into this matchup having produced seven wins in their last 10 outs, and they are amid a three-game winning streak. In the team’s most recent outing, Miami defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 119-113. 

First-year guard Jaime Jacquez Jr. led the Heat with 31 points to go along with 10 rebounds, and two steals. 

“Great to get a win, career night, Christmas,” Jaquez said, via ESPN. “I grew up watching these games and to be able to play and have a career night, I just go back to all the hard work, late nights in the gym, preparing for moments like this.”

Jacquez joined a small list of players who tallied 30 points and 10 rebounds on a Christmas Day game in their rookie seasons. The other players to accomplish this impressive feat are Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robinson, Patrick Ewing, and Walt Bellamy. Additionally, with the win, Heat head coach, Erik Spoelstra, remains undefeated (9-0) in games his teams played on Christmas Day. 

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.1 PPG – 9TH   
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.8 PPOHP – 12TH    
• Scoring Defense: 115.9 PPG – 19TH    
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.6 PPHOP –15TH   

*PPOHP is (Points Per One Hundred Possessions)

Meanwhile, the Warriors enter this matchup with six wins over their last 10 contests. This includes a 120-114 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Anthony Wiggins paced the Warriors’ scoring with 22 points off the bench. Stephen Curry tallied 18 points and four assists on 7-for-21 shooting from the floor and 3-for-13 from beyond the arc. Jonathan Kuminga added 13 points and five rebounds. 

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Golden State Warriors opened as a consensus two-point favorite in this matchup. The line has moved up slightly to 2.5 points for the home team. Here is a quick glimpse at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• Miami is 9-6 ATS as the road team, while Golden State is 6-9 ATS when playing at home.
• The Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups against the Warriors.
• In its last six Thursday road contests, Miami is 1-4-1 against the spread.
• The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their six games overall. 
• Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Warriors are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings against teams in the Southeast Division.

Based on the above trends, taking the home team to cover is a wise choice.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 225 points. The line has moved to 227 points, with the “over” garnering 96 percent of the cash and 94 percent of the tickets (per pre-game.com). Here is a look at why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here. 

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Heat’s’ last six outings.
• In the Warriors’ last 18 outings, the OVER won out 12 times.
• The OVER total has won five times in Golden State’s last six matchups against the Heat. 
• The OVER total has prevailed six times in the Warriors’ last nine December games.
• The last six instances in which the Golden State played on a Thursday, the OVER cashed in five times.

Prediction: OVER 227 points

Prop Bets

Given that Jimmy Butler’s status is questionable for this matchup, Bam Adebayo is the key player to watch for Miami. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points. Let us look at how his season splits compare with the projected total for this matchup.

• In 11 career games against the Warriors, Adebayo is averaging 14.5 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 22 points per outing.
• Adebayo has played against Western Conference teams five times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.4 points per outing.
• In 10 road games, Adebayo is averaging 23.3 PPG.
• Adebayo has played in two Thursday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging just 13.5 PPG.
• During December – a sample size of four games – Adebayo is averaging 21 PPG.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “under” for Adebayo looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo UNDER 22.5 points

The key player to watch for the Golden State Warriors is Stephen Curry. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points. Here is a closer look at how his season splits compare with the projected scoring total for this matchup. 

• In 21 career games against the Heat, Curry is averaging 25.1 points per contest. 
• On the season, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
• In 13 home games, Chef Curry is averaging 30.2 PPG.
• Curry has played against Eastern Conference teams six times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 32 PPG.
• The last two times he has played on a Thursday, his points-per-game average is 21.5.
• During December – a sample size of 11 games — Curry is averaging 25.5 PPG.
• Curry has exceeded the projected points total for this matchup five times across his last 10 outings.

Based on his recent body of work, going with “over” for Curry is a safe bet here.

James’s Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Picks

• The Spread: Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

• Over/Under: OVER 227 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Bam Adebayo UNDER 22.5 points
• Player Prop Bet#2: Stephen Curry UNDER 27.5 points