LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. DENVER NUGGETS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 22, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Los Angeles Lakers (49-36 SU, 40-45 ATS) taking on the Denver Nuggets (58-25 SU, 39-42-2 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this play-in tournament matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, April 22, 2024
  
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Ball Arena
  
• Location: Denver, CO
  
• TV: TNT and truTV

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Odds (Via DraftKings)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Lakers Bounce Back In Game 2?

Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.0 PPG – 6TH                       
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 15TH                       
• Scoring Defense: 117.4 PPG – 23RD                     
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.3 points per 100 possessions – 16TH           

The Lakers finished the season with the seventh-best record in the Western Conference, pitting them in a 7-vs-8 matchup in the play-in round against the New Orleans Pelicans. The game’s outcome was very much in doubt until the last few minutes.

However, Zion Williamson – who scored 40 points and grabbed 11 rebounds – exited the game with an injury. The Lakers went on to win the game 110-106 victory, setting up a rematch of last year’s Western Conference finals series against the defending champion Denver Nuggets. 

The Lakers came up a bit in Game 1 as they were beaten by a 114-103 margin. Anthony Davis scored a team-high 32 points on 13-for-23 shooting from the field. He also tallied 14 rebounds and five assists.

LeBron James finished with 27 points, eight assists and six rebounds. Both D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves contributed 13 points each. 

Los Angeles has dropped each of its last eight outings against the Nuggets and will be looking to reverse that trend when these teams clash on Monday night.

Can The Nuggets Extend Their Winning Streak Over The Purple And Gold To Eight Games?

Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.9 PPG – 14TH              
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.5 points per 100 possessions – 11TH              
• Scoring Defense: 109.6 PPG – 6TH                         
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.0 points per 100 possessions – 8TH             

On the other side of this matchup, the Denver Nuggets finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference. Additionally, they have won six of their last 10 contests and enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. 

In the team’s most recent outing, they defeated the Lakers 114-103 in Game 1 of this first-round playoff series. Nikola Jokic scored 32 points, grabbed 12 boards, and handed out seven assists. 

Jamal Murray added 22 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds, but shot just 9-for-24 from the floor. Michael Porter Jr. finished with 19 points and eight rebounds.  

Denver trailed by eight points after the first quarter and by three points at the break. But thanks to a 32-18 scoring edge in the third quarter, the Nuggets went on to win the game by a double-digit margin. 

“We’re not going anywhere,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said after the game. “This is the playoffs. No team in the playoffs, if you get down 12 early, you’re not going to just take your ball and go home. We still have plenty of fight left in us and we know that we were better than what we were playing early.

The Nuggets have dominated the Lakers, having won each of the last seven meetings between them. Can the Lakers change that trend, or will the Nuggets roll to yet another victory?

Now that we have set the table for this showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Denver Nuggets opened as a 6.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 7.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last six contests.
• Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in their last six matchups against Denver.
• In their last six Monday night road games, the Lakers are 1-5 against the spread.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five matchups against Western Conference teams.
• In its last five April games, the Nuggets are 4-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-7.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 225.5 points. The line has recently moved to 223 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Lakers’ last nine outings.
• The OVER total has cashed in six times in Los Angeles’s last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The two teams average a combined 232.9 points per contest, which is 9.9 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (223.5).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 228.1 points per contest, which is 5.1 points higher than the projected total for this matchup. 

Prediction: OVER 223 points

Player Prop Bets

Fresh off his 32-point, 14-rebound effort against Denver in the series opener, Anthony Davis is the key player to watch for Los Angeles. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• In 31 career games against the Nuggets, Davis has averaged 23.8 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 32 points per game.
• In his lone road contest in the playoffs, AD is averaging 32 points per game.
• Davis has played against Western Conference teams 48 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.8 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, he is averaging 23.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Davis has averaged 24.8 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points

On the other side of the matchup, Nikola Jokic paced the team’s offense in Game 1 with 32 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.  thus making him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 28.5 points. 

Do Jokic’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• In 27 career games against the Lakers, Jokic has averaged 20.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 32 points per contest.
• In the team’s one home contest in the playoffs, the Nuggets’ veteran big man is averaging 32 points per game.
• Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 49 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.7 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 27.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 29.3 points and 13 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic UNDER 28.5 points

James Tillman’s Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Picks

• The Spread: Denver Nuggets (-7.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 223 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Nikola Jokic UNDER 28.5 points