INDIANA PACERS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR APRIL 30, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Indiana Pacers (50-37 SU, 46-38-3 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (50-36 SU, 37-49 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Where: Fiserv Forum
Location: Milwaukee, WI
TV: TNT, BSIN, and BSWI

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds (Via DraftKings)

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Indiana Pacers Finish Off Injury-Riddled Bucks?

Indiana Pacers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 123.3 PPG – 1ST                        
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.0 points per 100 possessions – 2ND                      
• Scoring Defense: 120.2 PPG – 27TH                      
• Defensive Efficiency: 118.0 points per 100 possessions – 24TH             

The Indiana Pacers took four of the five meetings between these teams during the regular season. That dominance has continued as Indiana has won three of the first four games of this playoff series after dropping the opener. 

In the team’s 126-113 win in Game 4, Myles Turner paced the offense with 29 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. He shot 10-for-17 from the field and 7-for-9 from beyond the arc. 

Tyrese Haliburton — who had his best scoring outing of the series — finished with 24 points on 8-for-16 from the floor, including a 5-for-12 effort from the 3-point line. He also tallied four rebounds and four assists. The Pacers guard has noticed a difference in the team’s level of play over the last three contests.

“Game 1, I felt like they dictated the tempo. I would say the story of the last three games is that we have,” Haliburton said after the game. “In a world and a league that says, ‘Oh, you can’t play fast in the playoffs,’ we don’t really believe in that. We’re going to be who we are and put our identity and our imprint on every game.”

Of course, barring divine intervention, the Pacers should be able to win the series against a short-handed Bucks team. 

Can The Milwaukee Bucks Force A Game 6?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 119.0 PPG – 4TH              
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.4 points per 100 possessions – 6TH                
• Scoring Defense: 116.4 PPG – 21ST                            
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.8 points per 100 possessions – 19TH               

After taking the series opener, the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves down 3-1, facing a first-round exit for the second straight season. 

But the unwelcome news does not stop there. In addition to being without its top scorer – Giannis Antetokounmpo — for the entire series, Damian Lillard sustained an Achilles injury and did not play in Game 4. And he probably will not suit up for Game 5, either. 

Brook Lopez headlined the team’s scoring attack in Game 4, leading the way with 27 points on 12-for-18 shooting from the floor, and he knocked down three of his five attempts from distance. He also grabbed nine rebounds, including three on the offensive glass. 

Khris Middleton finished with 25 points, 10 boards, and five dimes but shot just 9-for-22 from the field. Not only that, but he suffered an ankle injury in the second half – adding to the team’s injury woes. 

“One game at a time,” Rivers said via CBS Sports. “We have two games left at home. They have one game left at home. That’s how you can look at it. The first thing is that we have to win the first game at home. We can talk about the rest after that.”

With its top two scorers out of the game, and the third leading scorer hobbled with an ankle injury, it is difficult to see Milwaukee winning another game in this series. And for the second straight season, this team will have multiple questions to address during the offseason. 

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 5 showdown let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Indiana Pacers are four-point favorites heading into Game 5 (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Pacers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Milwaukee.
• Indiana is 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests.
• The Bucks are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 outings.
• Milwaukee is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents. 
• In their last five Tuesday games, the Bucks are 1-4 against the spread.

The Pacers have been favored to win by four or more points 32 times this season. Their against-the-spread record is 17-14-1 in those contests. Milwaukee has played as an underdog of four or more points seven times this season. The team is 3-4 against the spread in those games.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined with an injury and Damian Lillard listed as doubtful, the Pacers should be a good bet to cover here.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers (-4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 216.5 points. The line has moved to 214 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER eight times in the Pacers last nine outings.

• The OVER total has cashed in seven times in Indiana’s last eight matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.

• In the Pacers’ last five games against Central Division teams, the OVER total won four times.

• The total has gone OVER five times in Bucks’ last seven games.

• The OVER total is 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last five matchups against Indiana.

• In the Bucks’ last 19 April games, the OVER total is 14-5.

• The total has gone OVER six times in Milwaukee’s last eight contests as the underdog. 

• Indiana and Boston average a combined 242.3 points per contest, which is 28.3 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (214).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 236.6 points per contest, which is 22.6 points higher than the projected total for this matchup. 

Prediction: OVER 214 points

Player Proper Bets

Myles Turner’s 29-point, nine-rebound effort in Game 4, makes him the key player to watch for the road team. He currently has -112 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -108 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Turner is averaging 17.4 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In nine games against the Bucks this season, he has averaged 21.6 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 24.3 points per outing.
• Turner has played against Eastern Conference teams 54 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 17.7 points per outing.
• In 21 matchups against Central Division opponents, the Pacers forward is averaging 19.9 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Turner has averaged 25.6 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Myles Turner OVER 20.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Brook Lopez had his best outing of the series in Game 4 (27 points and nine boards), which makes him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has +102 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -122 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points. 

Do Lopez’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In nine games against the Bucks this season, he has averaged 15.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Lopez is averaging 18.5 points per outing.
• Lopez has played against Eastern Conference teams 56 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 12.8 points per outing.
• In 18 matchups against Central Division opponents, Milwaukee’s big man is averaging 13.9 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Lopez has averaged 17.0 points and 4.2 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Brook Lopez OVER 16.5 points

 

James Tillman’s Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Picks

• The Spread: Indiana Pacers (-4.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 214 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Myles Turner OVER 20.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Brook Lopez OVER 16.5 points