INDIANA PACERS VS. BOSTON CELTIC ODDS & PREDICTIONS FOR MAY 21, 2024

Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Latest Basketball News. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Indiana Pacers (55-41 SU, 51-42-3 ATS) taking on the top-seeded Boston (70-20 SU, 47-40-5 ATS). 

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

• When: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
  
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
  
• Where: TD Garden
  
• Location: Boston, MA
  
• TV: ESPN

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Odds (Via DraftKings)

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Things did not look for Indiana in their second-round matchup against the New York Knicks. They dropped the first two games of that series and trailed 3-2 following a 121-91 loss at Madison Square Garden in Game 5. Facing elimination for the first time in the playoffs, the Pacers kept their season alive with a 116-103 win in Game 6 to force a seventh and final game. 

Although the Pacers were the top-scoring team in the association during the regular season, they had not fared too well in their road playoff games. Going into Game 7, they were 1-5 on the road, including an 0-3 record against New York. However, the Pacers answered the bell once again. They dropped 39 points in the first quarter and led 39-27 after the first 12 minutes of action, setting the tone for the rest of the afternoon.

When it was all said and done, the Pacers cruised to a 130-109 victory, punching their ticket to the conference finals round for the first time since 2014. Indiana shot 76.3 percent in the first half and finished with a 67.1 conversion rate for the game, which is the highest shooting percentage in an NBA playoff game. 

The Indiana Pacers beat the New York Knicks 130-109 Sunday night, earning their first trip to the Eastern Conference finals since 2014 by shooting 67.1 percent, the highest field goal percentage in NBA playoff history.https://t.co/3KTvLv6H3z

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) May 20, 2024

On the other side of this matchup, we have a Boston Celtics team that breezed through the regular season with a league-best 64 wins against 18 losses. From an offensive standpoint, Boston finished 2nd and 1st in scoring offense and efficiency. At the other end of the court, they ranked 5th in points allowed (109.2) and had the third-lowest defensive rating in the association (111.6 points per 100 possessions).

In the opening round of the playoffs, they eliminated an injury-plagued Miami Heat team in five games. This avenged last year’s loss to Miami in the conference finals. Their next opponent was the Cleveland Cavaliers. This series unfolded in a similar fashion to the Heat series. The Celtics routed Cleveland in the opener by a 120-95 margin. But Cleveland answered with a Game 2 win on Boston’s home court.

As the Celtics had done all season, though, they answered the call when faced with a little adversity. After a pair of Game 2 hiccups in both series, Boston won each of the next three games to close out both playoff opponents in five games, setting up a conference finals matchup featuring the league’s highest-scoring teams.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 1 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides. 

The Picks

The Spread

After posting an 8-2 mark across their first 10 playoff games, the Celtics come into this matchup as a 10-point favorite (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season. 

• The Pacers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday night games.
• Indiana is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Boston.
• Boston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 Tuesday home games.

The Celtics have been favored to win by 10 points or more 32 times this season. Their against-the-spread record is 17-13-2 in those contests. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 1-2 against the spread when playing as an underdog of 10 points or more.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-10)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 218.5 points. The line has moved to 221.5 points at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice. 

• The total has gone OVER 13 times in the Pacers’ last 18 outings.
• The OVER total is 12-5 in New York’s last 17 matchups against Eastern Conference teams
• In the Pacers’ last 13 May games, the OVER total cashed in 10 times. 
• The total has gone OVER 14 times in the Celtics’ last 20 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The OVER total is 12-6 in Boston’s last 18 matchups against Indiana.
• In the Celtics’ last nine contests against Central Division teams, the OVER total prevailed six times.
• Indiana and Boston average a combined 243.9 points per contest, which is 22.4 more points than the over/under for this contest.
• Opponents of these teams average 229.4 points per game, which is 7.9 points higher than the 221.5 estimated total. 

Prediction: OVER 221.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Pascal Siakam averaged 20 points per contest on 52.8 shooting in the seven-game series against the Knicks, thus making him the key player to watch for the Pacers. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points. 

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup. 

• Siakam is averaging 21.6 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In five games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 21.4 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 21.1 points per outing.
• Siakam has played against Eastern Conference teams 61 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 22.0 points per outing.
• In 27 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Pacers forward is averaging 20.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Siakam has averaged 18.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Jayson Tatum averaged a team-high 26.8 PPG against the Cavaliers in the conference semifinals, which makes him the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points. 

Do Tatum’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out. 

• Tatum is averaging 26.5 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In four games against the Pacers this season, he has averaged 32.5 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 24.3 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Eastern Conference teams 56 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.5 points per outing.
• In 20 matchups against Central Division opponents, the Knicks’ point guard is averaging 26.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 24.3 points and 10.4 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup only twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum UNDER 29.5 points

James Tillman’s Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Picks

• The Spread: Boston Celtics (-10) Bleacher Nation
• Over/Under: OVER 221.5 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Jalen Tatum UNDER 29.5 points