BOSTON CELTICS VS. INDIANA PACERS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 4, 2023

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One of the two games on Monday night’s slate features the Boston Celtics (15-4) going on the road to take on the Indiana Pacers (10-8). 

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this Eastern Conference showdown and why.

Tipoff

• When: Monday, December 4, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
  
• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
  
• TV: TNT, BSIN and NBCS-BOS

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Odds (via DraftKings)

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Boston Celtics enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak that has them sitting atop the Eastern Conference. In their most recent outing, they defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 125-119 on Friday night. Despite being ejected late in the third quarter, Jayson Tatum led Boston with 21 points, seven rebounds and four assists. Derrick White chipped in with 21 points, six rebounds, and five assists. 

Following a pair of losses to the Portland Trail Blazers (114-110) and the Miami Heat (142-132), the Pacers got back into the win column with a 144-129 win over the Heat on Saturday night. 

Bruce Brown led the Pacers with 30 points, four rebounds, and two assists. Obi Toppin tallied 22 points along four blocks, two rebounds, and two assists. 

Additionally, Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell scored 20 points apiece off the bench. Despite missing 15 shots in the opening quarter, the Pacers finished the game shooting 65.9 percent from the field (56-for-85) and 50 percent (16-for-32) beyond the arc. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Boston Celtics opened as a 4.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, that line has moved to the Celtics being a five-point favorite (via pregame.com). Here is a look at why going with the home team to cover is the best choice. 

• The Boston Celtics are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games overall. 
• Boston is just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Pacers.
• The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests. 
• The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games they played on a Monday.
• The Indiana Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games they have played in December. 
• Indiana is an impressive 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups in which they were the underdog. 

Prediction: Indiana Pacers (+5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 238.5 points. That line has moved to 241.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “over” is a wise choice.

• The OVER total has hit seven times for Boston in its last eight road games against the Indiana Pacers.
• In the Indiana Pacers’ last 15 games, the OVER total hit 14 times.
• The total has gone OVER  10 times in the previous 14 meetings between these two teams. 
• In the Indiana Pacers’ last nine home games, the OVER total cashed in eight times.

Prediction: OVER 241.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch for the Boston Celtics is Jaylen Brown. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -110 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points. 

From a historical perspective, Brown is averaging 18.4 points per contest in 20 career games against the Indiana Pacers.  On the season, Brown is averaging 21.8 points per outing.  

Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 21.4 points per game. Lastly, when these teams squared off on Nov. 1, Brown finished with 16 points in that contest. Given these metrics, I’d suggest going with the “under” for Brown.  

Prediction: Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 points

Because Tyrese Haliburton is questionable for this matchup, my key player to watch for the Pacers is Myles Turner. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 15.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 15.5 points. In 25 career games against the Boston Celtics, Turner is averaging 13.2 points per contest, which is slightly lower than the projected total for this matchup. It should also be noted that Turner scored just eight points (on 4-for-12 shooting and 0-for-3 from beyond the arc) when these teams played each other on Nov. 1. 

However, Turner is averaging 16.2 points per outing during the season. He has scored 16-plus points seven times across his last 11 outings. And he is averaging 16.7 points per contest during that stretch. Taking these recent trends into consideration, it is probably a safe bet to go with the “over” for Myles Turner.

Prediction: Myles Turner OVER 15.5 points

James’s Boston Celtics vs.  Indiana Pacers Picks

• The Spread: Indiana Pacers (+5)
• Over/Under: OVER 241.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #1: Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Myles Turner Over 15.5 points